What’s more, car owners are predicted to cut back on driving in order to save money. Together, these changes in consumer behaviour could make an important dent in the US contribution to global warming, reducing annual carbon dioxide emissions by tens of millions of tonnes per year. The impact will be dramatic, says Chris Knittel, an economist at the University of California, Davis, who was involved in one of the studies.

The changes are being driven by record fuel prices in the US, where, at the end of April, the average price of gasoline stood at $3.65 per gallon, 20 percent more than in January and treble the price of a decade ago. Until recently, these increases did not seem to be having a consistent effect on the car market and fuel use. Though sales of SUVs in the US have been falling over the past few years, this decline has come on the back of years of rapid growth, and overall gasoline consumption has been increasing every year since 1991.

That could be about to change. Knittel and colleagues looked at data on 1.4 million car purchases over the past 10 years, comparing sales patterns with gas prices. They found that sales of the least fuel-efficient cars, such as SUVs and pick-up trucks, fell by 13 percent for every $1 per gallon increase in the price of gasoline. The biggest SUVs suffered the most, with sales dropping by over 25 percent for every dollar by which the gas price rose. And for every $1 hike in gas prices there was a corresponding 17 percent sales boost for the most efficient vehicles, such as compact cars and hybrids. Knittel estimates that over about a decade, such changes in buying habits could cut the amount of gasoline used by US drivers by around 7 percent for every $1 increase in its price.

Knittel’s findings, presented last month at the University of California Energy Institute in Berkeley, are in broad agreement with those of economist Kenneth Small of the University of California, Irvine. Small looked at data on US fuel consumption and prices over the past 40 years, and projected last year that the recent doubling in fuel prices would quickly lead to a 4 percent drop in the total mileage covered on the roads. In the longer term, as drivers continue to react to rising prices, he projects the size of the reduction will grow to around 20 percent (The Energy Journal, vol 28, p 25).

This would lead to a substantial reduction in carbon emissions. Small says that a $1 per gallon rise in gasoline prices, roughly that seen over the past two years, will result in motorists using 14 percent less fuel in the long term. That would avoid the release of some tens of millions of tonnes of CO2 per year, equivalent to roughly 2 percent of the country’s greenhouse-gas emissions for 2006. That is a hugely significant drop, close to the level of cuts that some nations are required to make under the Kyoto protocol.

Small’s prediction comes with major caveats, however. Gasoline prices are not expected to return to the lows of a decade ago, but could fall by 10 or 20 percent in coming years. And any US economic recovery will boost fuel consumption, partly through raising incomes, which would dilute the pressure on motorists to drive less. So while expensive fuel will rein in consumption, Small and other economists question whether this will be enough to cause an overall fall in emissions from cars.

It is also possible that politics will intervene before any of these effects has a chance to kick in. Presidential hopefuls John McCain and Hillary Clinton have reacted to consumer protests over soaring fuel prices by declaring that they would suspend federal gasoline taxes. “It’s a fantastically stupid idea,” says Roberton Williams, an economist at the University of Texas at Austin.

“But people don’t like high gas taxes, so it’s popular.”

[Claire Bowles @ New Scientist]

Scene: The 2008 RALPH Awards, held at a highly secret location somewhere in the Northern Hemisphere. via Reno Gazette-Journal

By JOHN GEROME Sunday, May 11, 2008 Carrie Underwood is the newest member of the Grand Ole Opry. via WQXI-AM Atlanta

The new study is led by Lothar Stramma from the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR) in Kiel, Germany, and is co-authored by Janet Sprintall, a physical oceanographer at Scripps Oceanography and others. The researchers found through analysis of a database of ocean oxygen measurements that levels in tropical oceans at a depth of 300 to 700 meters (985 to 2,300 feet) have declined during the past 50 years. The ecological impacts of this increase could have substantial biological and economical consequences.

“We found the largest reduction in a depth of 300 to 700 meters (985 to 2,300 feet) in the tropical northeast Atlantic, whereas the changes in the eastern Indian Ocean were much less pronounced,” said Stramma. “Whether or not these observed changes in oxygen can be attributed to global warming alone is still unresolved. The reduction in oxygen may also be caused by natural processes on shorter time scales.”

Sprintall said the oxygen-poor areas have the potential to move into coastal areas via currents that flow from the mid-depth tropical oceans, where the oxygen changes were observed, and along the west coast of continents.

“The width of the low-oxygen zone is expanding deeper but also shoaling toward the ocean surface,” said Sprintall, a specialist in observing changes of fluxes in ocean properties such as heat distribution.

Sprintall contributed data to the study gathered during recent cruises undertaken as part of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program, a long-running study operated by the World Climate Research Programme that seeks to understand climate through ocean-atmosphere interactions.

The study, “Expanding Oxygen-Minimum Zones in the Tropical Oceans,” appears in the May 2 edition of the journal Science. The research team includes Stramma, Sprintall, NOAA scientist Gregory Johnson, and Volker Mohrholz from the Institute for Baltic Sea Research in Warnem??nde, Germany.

The team selected ocean regions for which they could obtain the greatest amount of data to document the decline in oxygen. Some of the more recent data came from oxygen sensors which have been added to about 150 of the profiling floats used in Argo, a worldwide network of sensors that track basic ocean conditions such as temperature and salinity. There are more than 3,000 Argo floats operating in the world’s oceans, and Sprintall said the quality of the data gathered by the Argo floats suggests that more units in the network should be outfitted with oxygen sensors.

Lisa Levin, a biological oceanographer at Scripps Oceanography who studies oxygen-minimum zones that intercept the seafloor, said an expansion of oxygen-minimum zones in the oceans could lead to diminished biodiversity and to the expanded distributions of organisms that have adapted to live in hypoxic, or oxygen-poor waters.

“I think it’s uncharted territory,” said Levin, who was not affiliated with the study. “Thicker oxygen minimum zones could affect nutrient cycling, predator-prey relationships and plankton migrations. Where the expanding oxygen-minimum zones impinge on continental margins, we could see huge ecosystem changes.”

[Rob Monroe and Mario Aguilera @ UC San Diego]