What’s more, car owners are predicted to cut back on driving in order to save money. Together, these changes in consumer behaviour could make an important dent in the US contribution to global warming, reducing annual carbon dioxide emissions by tens of millions of tonnes per year. The impact will be dramatic, says Chris Knittel, an economist at the University of California, Davis, who was involved in one of the studies.

The changes are being driven by record fuel prices in the US, where, at the end of April, the average price of gasoline stood at $3.65 per gallon, 20 percent more than in January and treble the price of a decade ago. Until recently, these increases did not seem to be having a consistent effect on the car market and fuel use. Though sales of SUVs in the US have been falling over the past few years, this decline has come on the back of years of rapid growth, and overall gasoline consumption has been increasing every year since 1991.

That could be about to change. Knittel and colleagues looked at data on 1.4 million car purchases over the past 10 years, comparing sales patterns with gas prices. They found that sales of the least fuel-efficient cars, such as SUVs and pick-up trucks, fell by 13 percent for every $1 per gallon increase in the price of gasoline. The biggest SUVs suffered the most, with sales dropping by over 25 percent for every dollar by which the gas price rose. And for every $1 hike in gas prices there was a corresponding 17 percent sales boost for the most efficient vehicles, such as compact cars and hybrids. Knittel estimates that over about a decade, such changes in buying habits could cut the amount of gasoline used by US drivers by around 7 percent for every $1 increase in its price.

Knittel’s findings, presented last month at the University of California Energy Institute in Berkeley, are in broad agreement with those of economist Kenneth Small of the University of California, Irvine. Small looked at data on US fuel consumption and prices over the past 40 years, and projected last year that the recent doubling in fuel prices would quickly lead to a 4 percent drop in the total mileage covered on the roads. In the longer term, as drivers continue to react to rising prices, he projects the size of the reduction will grow to around 20 percent (The Energy Journal, vol 28, p 25).

This would lead to a substantial reduction in carbon emissions. Small says that a $1 per gallon rise in gasoline prices, roughly that seen over the past two years, will result in motorists using 14 percent less fuel in the long term. That would avoid the release of some tens of millions of tonnes of CO2 per year, equivalent to roughly 2 percent of the country’s greenhouse-gas emissions for 2006. That is a hugely significant drop, close to the level of cuts that some nations are required to make under the Kyoto protocol.

Small’s prediction comes with major caveats, however. Gasoline prices are not expected to return to the lows of a decade ago, but could fall by 10 or 20 percent in coming years. And any US economic recovery will boost fuel consumption, partly through raising incomes, which would dilute the pressure on motorists to drive less. So while expensive fuel will rein in consumption, Small and other economists question whether this will be enough to cause an overall fall in emissions from cars.

It is also possible that politics will intervene before any of these effects has a chance to kick in. Presidential hopefuls John McCain and Hillary Clinton have reacted to consumer protests over soaring fuel prices by declaring that they would suspend federal gasoline taxes. “It’s a fantastically stupid idea,” says Roberton Williams, an economist at the University of Texas at Austin.

“But people don’t like high gas taxes, so it’s popular.”

[Claire Bowles @ New Scientist]

The dime-sized laser, to be described Thursday, May 8, at the Conference on Lasers and Electro-Optics, emits 10 billion pulses per second, each lasting about 40 femtoseconds (quadrillionths of a second), with an average power of 650 milliwatts. For comparison, the new laser produces pulses 10 times more often than a standard NIST frequency comb while producing much shorter pulses than other lasers operating at comparable speeds. The new laser is also 100 to 1000 times more powerful than typical high-speed lasers, producing clearer signals in experiments. The laser was built by Albrecht Bartels at the Center for Applied Photonics of the University of Konstanz.

Among its applications, the new laser can be used in searches for planets orbiting distant stars. Astronomers look for slight variations in the colors of starlight over time as clues to the presence of a planet orbiting the star. The variations are due to the small wobbles induced in the star’s motion as the orbiting planet tugs it back and forth, producing minute shifts in the apparent color (frequency) of the starlight. Currently, astronomers’ instruments are calibrated with frequency standards that are limited in spectral coverage and stability. Frequency combs could be more accurate calibration tools, helping to pinpoint even smaller variations in starlight caused by tiny Earthlike planets. Such small planets would cause color shifts equivalent to a star wobble of just a few centimeters per second. Current instruments can detect, at best, a wobble of about 1 meter per second.

Standard frequency combs have “teeth” that are too finely spaced for astronomical instruments to read. The faster laser is one approach to solving this problem. In a separate paper, the NIST group and astronomer Steve Osterman at the University of Colorado at Boulder describe how, by bouncing the light between sets of mirrors a particular distance apart, they can eliminate periodic blocks of teeth to create a gap-toothed comb. This leaves only every 10th or 20th tooth, making an ideal ruler for astronomy.

Both approaches have advantages for astronomical planet finding and related applications. The dime-sized laser is very simple in construction and produces powerful and extremely well-defined comb teeth. On the other hand, the filtering approach can cover a broader range of wavelengths. Four or five filtering cavities in parallel would provide a high-precision comb of about 25,000 evenly spaced teeth that spans the visible to near-infrared wavelengths (400 to 1100 nanometers), NIST physicist Scott Diddams says.

Osterman says he is pursuing the possibility of testing such a frequency comb at a ground-based telescope or launching a comb on a satellite or other space mission. Other possible applications of the new laser include remote sensing of gases for medical or atmospheric studies, and on-the-fly precision control of high-speed optical communications to provide greater versatility in data and time transmissions. The application of frequency combs to planet searches is of international interest and involves a number of major institutions such as the Max-Planck Institute for Quantum Optics and Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.

[Laura Ost @ National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)]

But it’s not just weight gain that poses a risk. People who are underweight also have an elevated risk of dementia, unlike people who are normal weight or overweight.

US researchers carried out a detailed review of 10 international studies published since 1995, covering just over 37,000 people, including 2,534 with various forms of dementia. Subjects were aged between 40 and 80 years when the studies started, with follow-up periods ranging from three to 36 years.

The review, which included studies from the USA, France, Finland, Sweden and Japan, also included a sophisticated meta-analysis of seven of the studies, published between 2003 and 2007 with a follow-up period of at least five years.

All kinds of dementia were included, with specific reference to Alzheimer’s Disease and to vascular dementia — where areas of the brain stop functioning because the blood vessels that supply them are damaged by conditions such as high blood pressure or heart disease.

“Our meta-analysis showed that obesity increased the relative risk of dementia, for both sexes, by an average of 42 percent when compared with normal weight” says Dr Youfa Wang, Associate Professor of International Health and Epidemiology at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore.

“And being underweight increased the risk by 36 percent.

“But when we looked specifically at Alzheimer’s Disease, the increased risk posed by obesity was 80 percent. The increased risk for people with vascular dementia was 73 percent.

“The risks were greater in studies where sufferers developed Alzheimer’s Disease or vascular dementia before the age of 60 or in studies with follow-up periods of more than 10 years.

“We also found that obesity was more likely to be a risk factor for women when it came to developing Alzheimer’s Disease and for men when it came to vascular dementia.”

The authors estimate that 12 percent of the dementia risk in the study population could be attributed to obesity, with this rising to just over 21 percent in patients with Alzheimer’s Disease.

It’s estimated that up to 10 percent of people aged 65 or more suffer from some form of dementia and two-thirds of those have Alzheimer’s Disease.

“There has been controversy about the links between obesity and dementia for a number of years, but previous findings have been mixed and inconclusive” says Dr Wang.

“The advantage of carrying out a meta-analysis is that it provides researchers with access to a large number of study subjects and it is possible to iron out the inconsistencies and come to overarching conclusions.

“Our detailed analysis clearly shows a U-shaped relationship between weight and dementia, with people who are obese or underweight facing a greater risk.

“We believe that our results show that reducing the prevalence of obesity is a promising strategy for preventing the progression of normal ageing into Alzheimer’s Disease.”

[Annette Whibley @ Wiley-Blackwell]

Approximately 20 percent of ACP members who are involved in direct patient care are in solo physician practices. And, about 50 percent are in practices of five or fewer physicians.

On July 1, physicians face a 10.6 percent cut in Medicare reimbursements. Another 5 percent cut is anticipated on January 1, 2009. The Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) formula that is used to calculate Medicare payments to physicians was created in 1997 and ties physician payments to growth in the overall economy. When growth in physician expenditures exceeds growth in the economy, the difference is subtracted from physician payments. The SGR formula has led to scheduled annual cuts for six consecutive years.

Earlier this year, ACP surveyed its members to measure the impact of pending Medicare payment cuts on their practices and on their patients. The questionnaire asked internists to report on the changes they would be forced to make if Congress does not act. Although the survey was not designed as a scientific sample, almost 2,000 internists responded, providing ACP with first-hand accounts of how the SGR cuts are affecting millions of Medicare beneficiaries.

Dr Dale cited the story of one respondent, a Texas internist, who said:

“The practice of medicine is a calling and as such, my colleagues and I have endured more unfair revenue cuts than most businesses would have endured. Yet, a medical practice is also a small business, and there are limits to how much we can endure. We are now at the point where further cuts are not survivable. Just like any small business, our revenue has to exceed costs in order to survive. Despite everything that I have been able to do to cut costs, the margin of profit is now thin, and the proposed greater than 10 percent cut will put us out of business. The only option will be to downsize the practice and stop seeing all Medicare patients. I would hate this, but it will be the only option I have if Congress does not reverse the proposed cuts.”

ACP is asking Congress to avert the immediate SGR cut, but also go a step beyond. The College is asking Congress to set a timeline for completely eliminating the use of the SGR formula. ACP also wants Congress to direct Medicare, as part of replacing the SGR formula, to change payment policies to support patient-centered, physician-guided care management based on the patient-centered medical home model of care.

“Medicare patients deserve the best possible care,” concluded Dr. Dale. They also deserve a physician payment system that will help physicians deliver the best care possible, his testimony said.

[David Kinsman @ American College of Physicians]

The new study is led by Lothar Stramma from the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR) in Kiel, Germany, and is co-authored by Janet Sprintall, a physical oceanographer at Scripps Oceanography and others. The researchers found through analysis of a database of ocean oxygen measurements that levels in tropical oceans at a depth of 300 to 700 meters (985 to 2,300 feet) have declined during the past 50 years. The ecological impacts of this increase could have substantial biological and economical consequences.

“We found the largest reduction in a depth of 300 to 700 meters (985 to 2,300 feet) in the tropical northeast Atlantic, whereas the changes in the eastern Indian Ocean were much less pronounced,” said Stramma. “Whether or not these observed changes in oxygen can be attributed to global warming alone is still unresolved. The reduction in oxygen may also be caused by natural processes on shorter time scales.”

Sprintall said the oxygen-poor areas have the potential to move into coastal areas via currents that flow from the mid-depth tropical oceans, where the oxygen changes were observed, and along the west coast of continents.

“The width of the low-oxygen zone is expanding deeper but also shoaling toward the ocean surface,” said Sprintall, a specialist in observing changes of fluxes in ocean properties such as heat distribution.

Sprintall contributed data to the study gathered during recent cruises undertaken as part of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program, a long-running study operated by the World Climate Research Programme that seeks to understand climate through ocean-atmosphere interactions.

The study, “Expanding Oxygen-Minimum Zones in the Tropical Oceans,” appears in the May 2 edition of the journal Science. The research team includes Stramma, Sprintall, NOAA scientist Gregory Johnson, and Volker Mohrholz from the Institute for Baltic Sea Research in Warnem??nde, Germany.

The team selected ocean regions for which they could obtain the greatest amount of data to document the decline in oxygen. Some of the more recent data came from oxygen sensors which have been added to about 150 of the profiling floats used in Argo, a worldwide network of sensors that track basic ocean conditions such as temperature and salinity. There are more than 3,000 Argo floats operating in the world’s oceans, and Sprintall said the quality of the data gathered by the Argo floats suggests that more units in the network should be outfitted with oxygen sensors.

Lisa Levin, a biological oceanographer at Scripps Oceanography who studies oxygen-minimum zones that intercept the seafloor, said an expansion of oxygen-minimum zones in the oceans could lead to diminished biodiversity and to the expanded distributions of organisms that have adapted to live in hypoxic, or oxygen-poor waters.

“I think it’s uncharted territory,” said Levin, who was not affiliated with the study. “Thicker oxygen minimum zones could affect nutrient cycling, predator-prey relationships and plankton migrations. Where the expanding oxygen-minimum zones impinge on continental margins, we could see huge ecosystem changes.”

[Rob Monroe and Mario Aguilera @ UC San Diego]